The Ragozzine research group studies exoplanets and Kuiper Belt Objects using theoretical orbital dynamics, advanced statistical techniques, computational data analysis, and the best astronomical data.
Selected Publications
Searching for life elsewhere in the universe is one of the most highly prioritized pursuits in astronomy today. However, the ability to observe evidence of Earth-like life through biosignatures is limited by the number of planets in the solar neighborhood with conditions similar to Earth. The occurrence rate of Earth-like planets in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars, η⊕, is therefore crucial for addressing the apparent lack of consensus on its value in the literature. Here we present a review of the current understanding of η⊕. We first provide definitions for parameters that contribute to η⊕. Then, we discuss the previous and current estimated parameter values and the context of the limitations on the analyses that produced these estimates. We compile an extensive list of the factors that go into any calculation of η⊕, and how detection techniques and surveys differ in their sensitivity and ability to accurately constrain η⊕. Understanding and refining the value of η⊕ is crucial for upcoming missions and telescopes, such as the planned Habitable Worlds Observatory and the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets, which aim to search for biosignatures on exoplanets in the solar neighborhood.
We present a detailed dynamical analysis of the Quaoar–Weywot system based on nearly 20 yr of high-precision astrometric data, including new Hubble Space Telescope observations and stellar occultations. Our study reveals that Weywot’s orbit deviates significantly from a purely Keplerian model, requiring the inclusion of Quaoar’s nonspherical gravitational field and center-of-body–center-of-light (COB-COL) offsets in our orbit models. We place a robust upper limit on Weywot’s orbital eccentricity (e < 0.02), substantially lower than previous estimates, which has important implications for the strength of mean-motion resonances acting on Quaoar’s ring system. Under the assumption that Quaoar’s rings lie in its equatorial plane, we detect Quaoar’s dynamical oblateness, J2, at ∼2σ confidence. The low J2 value found under that assumption implies that Quaoar is differentiated, with a total bulk density of 1751 ± 13 (stat.) kg m−3. Additionally, we detect significant COB-COL offsets likely arising from latitudinal albedo variations across Quaoar’s surface. These offsets are necessary to achieve a statistically robust orbit fit and highlight the importance of accounting for surface heterogeneity when modeling the orbits of dwarf planet moons. These findings improve our understanding of Quaoar’s interior and surface while providing key insights into the stability and confinement mechanisms of its rings.
We report on roughly 16 yr of photometric monitoring of the trans-Neptunian binary system (120347) Salacia–Actaea, which provides significant evidence that Salacia and Actaea are tidally locked to the mutual orbital period in a fully synchronous configuration. The orbit of Actaea is updated, followed by a Lomb–Scargle periodogram analysis of the ground-based photometry, which reveals a synodic period similar to the orbital period and a peak-to-peak lightcurve amplitude of Δm = 0.0900 ± 0.0036 mag (1σ uncertainty). Incorporating archival Hubble Space Telescope photometry that resolves each component, we argue that the periodicity in the unresolved data is driven by a longitudinally varying surface morphology on Salacia, and we derive a sidereal rotation period that is within 1σ of the mutual orbital period. A rudimentary tidal evolution model is invoked that suggests synchronization occurred within 1.1 Gyr after Actaea was captured/formed.