The Ragozzine research group studies exoplanets and Kuiper Belt Objects using theoretical orbital dynamics, advanced statistical techniques, computational data analysis, and the best astronomical data.
Selected Publications
Searching for life elsewhere in the universe is one of the most highly prioritized pursuits in astronomy today. However, the ability to observe evidence of Earth-like life through biosignatures is limited by the number of planets in the solar neighborhood with conditions similar to Earth. The occurrence rate of Earth-like planets in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars, η⊕, is therefore crucial for addressing the apparent lack of consensus on its value in the literature. Here we present a review of the current understanding of η⊕. We first provide definitions for parameters that contribute to η⊕. Then, we discuss the previous and current estimated parameter values and the context of the limitations on the analyses that produced these estimates. We compile an extensive list of the factors that go into any calculation of η⊕, and how detection techniques and surveys differ in their sensitivity and ability to accurately constrain η⊕. Understanding and refining the value of η⊕ is crucial for upcoming missions and telescopes, such as the planned Habitable Worlds Observatory and the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets, which aim to search for biosignatures on exoplanets in the solar neighborhood.
We present a detailed dynamical analysis of the Quaoar–Weywot system based on nearly 20 yr of high-precision astrometric data, including new Hubble Space Telescope observations and stellar occultations. Our study reveals that Weywot’s orbit deviates significantly from a purely Keplerian model, requiring the inclusion of Quaoar’s nonspherical gravitational field and center-of-body–center-of-light (COB-COL) offsets in our orbit models. We place a robust upper limit on Weywot’s orbital eccentricity (e < 0.02), substantially lower than previous estimates, which has important implications for the strength of mean-motion resonances acting on Quaoar’s ring system. Under the assumption that Quaoar’s rings lie in its equatorial plane, we detect Quaoar’s dynamical oblateness, J2, at ∼2σ confidence. The low J2 value found under that assumption implies that Quaoar is differentiated, with a total bulk density of 1751 ± 13 (stat.) kg m−3. Additionally, we detect significant COB-COL offsets likely arising from latitudinal albedo variations across Quaoar’s surface. These offsets are necessary to achieve a statistically robust orbit fit and highlight the importance of accounting for surface heterogeneity when modeling the orbits of dwarf planet moons. These findings improve our understanding of Quaoar’s interior and surface while providing key insights into the stability and confinement mechanisms of its rings.
We report on roughly 16 yr of photometric monitoring of the trans-Neptunian binary system (120347) Salacia–Actaea, which provides significant evidence that Salacia and Actaea are tidally locked to the mutual orbital period in a fully synchronous configuration. The orbit of Actaea is updated, followed by a Lomb–Scargle periodogram analysis of the ground-based photometry, which reveals a synodic period similar to the orbital period and a peak-to-peak lightcurve amplitude of Δm = 0.0900 ± 0.0036 mag (1σ uncertainty). Incorporating archival Hubble Space Telescope photometry that resolves each component, we argue that the periodicity in the unresolved data is driven by a longitudinally varying surface morphology on Salacia, and we derive a sidereal rotation period that is within 1σ of the mutual orbital period. A rudimentary tidal evolution model is invoked that suggests synchronization occurred within 1.1 Gyr after Actaea was captured/formed.
The unexpected finding of a ring system around the Centaur (10199) Chariklo opened a new window for dynamical studies and posed many questions about the formation and evolutionary mechanisms of Centaurs as well as the relationship to satellites and outbursting activity. As minor planets that cross the orbits of the giant planets, Centaurs have short dynamical lifetimes: Centaurs are supplied from the trans-Neptunian region and some fraction migrates inward to become Jupiter-family comets. Given these dynamical pathways, a comparison of attributes across these classifications provides information to understand the source population(s) and the processes that have affected these minor planets throughout their lifetimes. In this chapter we review the current knowledge of satellites, rings, and debris around Centaur-like bodies, discuss the observational techniques involved, place the information into context with the trans-Neptunian Objects, and consider what the results tell us about the outer solar system. We also examine open questions and future prospects.
Dynamically studying trans-Neptunian object (TNO) binaries allows us to measure masses and orbits. Most of the known objects appear to have only two components, except (47171) Lempo, which is the single known hierarchical triple system with three similar-mass components. Though hundreds of TNOs have been imaged with high-resolution telescopes, no other hierarchical triples (or trinaries) have been found among solar system small bodies, even though they are predicted in planetesimal formation models such as gravitational collapse after the streaming instability. By going beyond the point-mass assumption and modeling TNO orbits as non-Keplerian, we open a new window into the shapes and spins of the components, including the possible presence of unresolved "inner" binaries. Here we present evidence for a new hierarchical triple, (148780) Altjira (2001 UQ18), based on non-Keplerian dynamical modeling of the two observed components. We incorporate two recent Hubble Space Telescope observations, leading to a 17 yr observational baseline. We present a new open-source Bayesian point-spread function fitting code called nPSF that provides precise relative astrometry and uncertainties for single images. Our non-Keplerian analysis measures a statistically significant (∼2.5σ) nonspherical shape for Altjira. The measured J2 is best explained as an unresolved inner binary, and an example hierarchical triple model gives the best fit to the observed astrometry. Using an updated non-Keplerian ephemeris (which is significantly different from the Keplerian predictions), we show that the predicted mutual event season for Altjira has already begun, with several excellent opportunities for observations through ∼2030.
The physical and orbital parameters of trans-Neptunian objects provide valuable information about the solar system's formation and evolution. In particular, the characterization of binaries provides insights into the formation mechanisms that may be playing a role at such large distances from the Sun. Studies show two distinct populations, and (38628) Huya occupies an intermediate position between the unequal-sized binaries and those with components of roughly equal sizes. In this work, we predicted and observed three stellar occultation events by Huya. Huya and its satellitewere detected during occultations in 2021 March and again in 2023 June. Additionally, an attempt to detect Huya in 2023 February resulted in an additional single-chord detection of the secondary. A spherical body with a minimum diameter of D = 165 km can explain the three single-chord observations and provide a lower limit for the satellite size. The astrometry of Huya's system, as derived from the occultations and supplemented by observations from the Hubble Space Telescope and Keck Observatory, provided constraints on the satellite orbit and the mass of the system. Therefore, assuming the secondary is in an equatorial orbit around the primary, the limb fitting was constrained by the satellite orbit position angle. The system density, calculated by summing the most precise measurement of Huya's volume to the spherical satellite average volume, is ρ1 = 1073 ± 66 kg m−3. The density that the object would have assuming a Maclaurin equilibrium shape with a rotational period of 6.725 ± 0.01 hr is ρ2 = 768 ± 42 kg m−3. This difference rules out the Maclaurin equilibrium assumption for the main body shape.