The Ragozzine research group studies exoplanets and Kuiper Belt Objects using theoretical orbital dynamics, advanced statistical techniques, computational data analysis, and the best astronomical data. 

Selected Publications

Since the launch of the Kepler space telescope in 2009 and the subsequent K2 mission, hundreds of multiplanet systems have been discovered. The study of such systems, both as individual systems and as a population, leads to a better understanding of planetary formation and evolution. Kepler-80, a K dwarf hosting six super-Earths, was the first system known to have four planets in a chain of resonances, a repeated geometric configuration. Transiting planets in resonant chains can enable us to estimate not only the planets' orbits and sizes but also their masses. Since the original resonance analysis and TTV fitting of Kepler-80, a new planet has been discovered whose signal likely altered the measured masses of the other planets. Here, we determine masses and orbits for all six planets hosted by Kepler-80 by direct forward photodynamical modeling of the light curve of this system. We then explore the resonant behavior of the system. We find that the four middle planets are in a resonant chain, but that the outermost planet only dynamically interacts in similar to 14% of our solutions. We also find that the system and its dynamic behavior are consistent with in situ formation and compare our results to two other resonant chain systems, Kepler-60 and TRAPPIST-1.

The Kepler mission observed thousands of transiting exoplanet candidates around hundreds of thousands of FGK dwarf stars. He et al. applied forward modeling to infer the distribution of intrinsic architectures of planetary systems, developed a clustered Poisson point process model for exoplanetary systems (SysSim) to reproduce the marginal distributions of the observed Kepler population, and they showed that orbital periods and planet radii are clustered within a given planetary system. Here, we extend the clustered model to explore correlations between planetary systems and their host-star properties. We split the sample of Kepler FGK dwarfs into two halves and model the fraction of stars with planets (0.5–10R⊕ and 3–300 days), fswpa, as a linear function of the Gaia DR2 color. We confirm previous findings that the occurrence of these planetary systems rises significantly toward later-type (redder) stars. The fraction of stars with planets increases from  for F2V dwarfs to  for mid-K dwarfs. About half () of all solar-type (G2V) dwarfs harbor a planetary system between 3 and 300 days. This simple model can closely match the observed multiplicity distributions of both the bluer and redder halves in our sample, suggesting that the architectures of planetary systems around stars of different spectral types may be similar aside from a shift in the overall fraction of planet-hosting stars.

We present the occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define η⊕ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R⊕ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 and 6300 K. We find that η⊕ for the conservative HZ is between (errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between and planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates between using Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and using Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with 95% confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is ∼6 pc away and there are ∼4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.

The angular momentum deficit (AMD) of a planetary system is a measure of its orbital excitation and a predictor of long-term stability. We adopt the AMD-stability criterion to constrain the orbital architectures for exoplanetary systems. Previously, He et al. showed through forward modeling (SysSim) that the observed multiplicity distribution can be well reproduced by two populations consisting of a low and a high mutual inclination component. Here, we show that a broad distribution of mutual inclinations arising from systems at the AMD-stability limit can also match the observed Kepler population. We show that distributing a planetary system's maximum AMD among its planets results in a multiplicity-dependent distribution of eccentricities and mutual inclinations. Systems with intrinsically more planets have lower median eccentricities and mutual inclinations, and this trend is well described by power-law functions of the intrinsic planet multiplicity (n): ${\tilde{\mu }}_{e,n}\propto {n}^{-{1.74}_{-0.07}^{+0.11}}$ and ${\tilde{\mu }}_{i,n}\propto {n}^{-{1.73}_{-0.08}^{+0.09}}$, where ${\tilde{\mu }}_{e,n}$ and ${\tilde{\mu }}_{i,n}$ are the medians of the eccentricity and inclination distributions. We also find that intrinsic single planets have higher eccentricities (σ e,1 ~ 0.25) than multiplanet systems and that the trends with multiplicity appear in the observed distributions of period-normalized transit duration ratios. We show that the observed preferences for planet-size orderings and uniform spacings are more extreme than what can be produced by the detection biases of the Kepler mission alone. Finally, we find that for systems with detected transiting planets between 5 and 10 days, there is another planet with a greater radial velocity signal ~53% of the time.

Some of the most scientifically valuable transiting planets are those that were already known from radial velocity (RV) surveys. This is primarily because their orbits are well characterized and they preferentially orbit bright stars that are the targets of RV surveys. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) provides an opportunity to survey most of the known exoplanet systems in a systematic fashion to detect possible transits of their planets. HD 136352 (Nu2 Lupi) is a naked-eye (V = 5.78) G-type main-sequence star that was discovered to host three planets with orbital periods of 11.6, 27.6, and 108.1 days via RV monitoring with the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher (HARPS) spectrograph. We present the detection and characterization of transits for the two inner planets of the HD 136352 system, revealing radii of 1.482 R⊕ and 2.608 R⊕ for planets b and c, respectively. We combine new HARPS observations with RV data from the Keck/High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer and the Anglo-Australian Telescope, along with TESS photometry from Sector 12, to perform a complete analysis of the system parameters. The combined data analysis results in extracted bulk density values of 3.5 g cm−3 and  g cm−3 for planets b and c, respectively, thus placing them on either side of the radius valley. The combination of the multitransiting planet system, the bright host star, and the diversity of planetary interiors and atmospheres means this will likely become a cornerstone system for atmospheric and orbital characterization of small worlds.

Benjamin C. N. Proudfoot, Darin Ragozzine, and Steven Maggard (et al.)

While collisional families are common in the asteroid belt, only one is known in the Kuiper belt, linked to the dwarf planet Haumea. The characterization of Haumea’s family helps to constrain its origin and, more generally, the collisional history of the Kuiper belt. However, the size distribution of the Haumea family is difficult to constrain from the known sample, which is affected by discovery biases. Here, we use the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS) Ensemble to look for Haumea family members. In this OSSOS XVI study we report the detection of three candidates with small ejection velocities relative to the family formation centre. The largest discovery, 2013 UQ15, is conclusively a Haumea family member, with a low ejection velocity and neutral surface colours. Although the OSSOS Ensemble is sensitive to Haumea family members to a limiting absolute magnitude (Hr) of 9.5 (inferred diameter of ~90 km), the smallest candidate is significantly larger, Hr = 7.9. The Haumea family members larger than ≃20 km in diameter must be characterized by a shallow H-distribution slope in order to produce only these three large detections. This shallow size distribution suggests that the family formed in a graze-and-merge scenario, not a catastrophic collision.