The Ragozzine research group studies exoplanets and Kuiper Belt Objects using theoretical orbital dynamics, advanced statistical techniques, computational data analysis, and the best astronomical data. 

Selected Publications

Dallin Spencer and Darin Ragozzine (et al.)

The Small Body Dynamics Tool (SBDynT) is software written for the community of solar system small body researchers to perform dynamical classification, characterization, and investigation. SBDynT provides advanced simulation analysis capabilities that make it straightforward to determine mean-motion resonance occupation, proper orbital elements, and a variety of stability indicators. These calculations can be performed for small bodies that are known, newly discovered, or simulated; observational uncertainties can be incorporated through the use of dynamical clones. In this paper, we describe the methods for producing proper orbital elements and stability indicators, which serve as essential tools for characterizing dynamical stability and long-term evolution. Through extensive validation, we demonstrate that this code offers a robust open-source framework for investigating the dynamics of solar system small bodies with high accuracy. We also aim for computational efficiency allowing SBDynT to provide dynamical information for the several-fold increases in small bodies expected in the Legacy Survey of Space and Time era.

Darin Ragozzine and Dallin Spencer (et al.)

We report on the observation and measurement of astrometry, photometry, morphology, and activity of the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, also designated C/2025 N1 (ATLAS) with the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Comet 3I/ATLAS, the third known interstellar object, was discovered on UT 2025 July 1. Rubin Observatory had coincidentally collected images of the object’s region of the sky during routine commissioning. Facilitated by Rubin’s high resolution and large aperture, we successfully recovered object detections from Rubin observations spanning UT 2025 June 21 (10 days before discovery, when 3I/ATLAS was 4.5 au from the Sun) through the date of discovery, and we acquired additional images through UT 2025 July 20 as part of commissioning. We measure on-sky locations of 3I/ATLAS in Rubin ugrizy bands, with a typical precision of ∼70 mas, and briefly describe the reason this is coarser than our measured static source astrometric precision of ∼3 mas in Rubin images. We measure grizy magnitudes of 3I/ATLAS photometry at ∼0.01 mag precision, detecting no short-term photometric variability above 0.01 mag. We derive an estimated near-nucleus dust-to-nucleus scattering cross-sectional ratio of η ≳ 13 on UT 2025 July 2 based on Rubin photometry and an upper limit nucleus size computed from Hubble Space Telescope observations. We find Rubin colors of g − r =  (0.657 ± 0.013) mag, r − i =  (0.235 ± 0.018) mag, i − z = (0.147 ±  0.042) mag, and z − y =  (0.047 ± 0.052) mag. These data represent the earliest observations of this object by a large (≳8 m class) telescope and illustrate the type of measurements (and discoveries) Rubin’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time will provide after it begins in early 2026.

Benjamin Proudfoot and Darin Ragozzine (et al.)

Mutual events of trans-Neptunian binaries (TNBs) provide rare opportunities to measure the physical and orbital properties of small bodies in the outer solar system. However, successful observations of these events have been limited by uncertain predictions. Here, we present probabilistic predictions of TNB mutual events occurring through the 2030s, using high-precision non-Keplerian orbit solutions from the Beyond Point Masses project combined with a Bayesian framework that propagates orbital and size uncertainties. Our methods generate distributions of event timing, duration, depth, and probability of occurrence, enabling direct assessment of observability. We provide predictions for five systems with ongoing or imminent mutual event seasons, including (38628) Huya, (58534) Logos–Zoe, (148780) Altjira, (469705) ǂKá̧gára-!Hãunu, and (524366) 2001 XR254. Preparing for upcoming events with long-baseline light-curve monitoring is vital, as events may be difficult to distinguish from a regular rotational light curve. Rapid dissemination of event detections will benefit the entire community, allowing predictions to be updated, ensuring that these rare mutual event opportunities can be fully exploited.

Searching for life elsewhere in the universe is one of the most highly prioritized pursuits in astronomy today. However, the ability to observe evidence of Earth-like life through biosignatures is limited by the number of planets in the solar neighborhood with conditions similar to Earth. The occurrence rate of Earth-like planets in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars, η⊕, is therefore crucial for addressing the apparent lack of consensus on its value in the literature. Here we present a review of the current understanding of η⊕. We first provide definitions for parameters that contribute to η⊕. Then, we discuss the previous and current estimated parameter values and the context of the limitations on the analyses that produced these estimates. We compile an extensive list of the factors that go into any calculation of η⊕, and how detection techniques and surveys differ in their sensitivity and ability to accurately constrain η⊕. Understanding and refining the value of η⊕ is crucial for upcoming missions and telescopes, such as the planned Habitable Worlds Observatory and the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets, which aim to search for biosignatures on exoplanets in the solar neighborhood.

Benjamin Proudfoot and Darin Ragozzine (et al.)

We present a detailed dynamical analysis of the Quaoar–Weywot system based on nearly 20 yr of high-precision astrometric data, including new Hubble Space Telescope observations and stellar occultations. Our study reveals that Weywot’s orbit deviates significantly from a purely Keplerian model, requiring the inclusion of Quaoar’s nonspherical gravitational field and center-of-body–center-of-light (COB-COL) offsets in our orbit models. We place a robust upper limit on Weywot’s orbital eccentricity (e < 0.02), substantially lower than previous estimates, which has important implications for the strength of mean-motion resonances acting on Quaoar’s ring system. Under the assumption that Quaoar’s rings lie in its equatorial plane, we detect Quaoar’s dynamical oblateness, J2, at ∼2σ confidence. The low J2 value found under that assumption implies that Quaoar is differentiated, with a total bulk density of 1751 ± 13 (stat.) kg m−3. Additionally, we detect significant COB-COL offsets likely arising from latitudinal albedo variations across Quaoar’s surface. These offsets are necessary to achieve a statistically robust orbit fit and highlight the importance of accounting for surface heterogeneity when modeling the orbits of dwarf planet moons. These findings improve our understanding of Quaoar’s interior and surface while providing key insights into the stability and confinement mechanisms of its rings.

Benjamin Proudfoot and Darin Ragozzine (et al.)

We report on roughly 16 yr of photometric monitoring of the trans-Neptunian binary system (120347) Salacia–Actaea, which provides significant evidence that Salacia and Actaea are tidally locked to the mutual orbital period in a fully synchronous configuration. The orbit of Actaea is updated, followed by a Lomb–Scargle periodogram analysis of the ground-based photometry, which reveals a synodic period similar to the orbital period and a peak-to-peak lightcurve amplitude of Δm = 0.0900 ± 0.0036 mag (1σ uncertainty). Incorporating archival Hubble Space Telescope photometry that resolves each component, we argue that the periodicity in the unresolved data is driven by a longitudinally varying surface morphology on Salacia, and we derive a sidereal rotation period that is within 1σ of the mutual orbital period. A rudimentary tidal evolution model is invoked that suggests synchronization occurred within 1.1 Gyr after Actaea was captured/formed.